Thank you for your thought-provoking response Mr. Cave. I have always found the Vala hypothesis to be intriguing but unconvincing. Given Tolkien's lack of information on the topic - his general playfulness about it, in fact - I doubt it will be resolved any time soon.
I see Bombadil as another of many examples wherein Tolkien reused creative material from his existing writings. Bombadil & Farmer Maggot (from THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BOMBADIL, a series of poems Tolkien had already written) are just one example of many. Was Bombadil, as originally conceived in the poems, Aule? Very, very doubtful. Might Tolkien's idea of Bombadil evolved to the point that he BECAME a personification of Aule in FotR? Possible, but I find it unlikely.
I find LETTERS 153 to be the most enlightening of Tolkien's statements on Bombadil -
"I don't think Tom needs philosophizing about, and is not improved by it. But many have found him an odd or indeed discordant ingredient. In historical fact I put him in because I had already 'invented' him independently (he first appeared in the Oxford Magazine) and wanted an 'adventure' on the way"
That, I think, does not imply a seriousness in thought or intent which Tolkien would have almost certainly given to the appearance of a Vala in his story.
Again, this is a topic that could inspire endless debate. I will not say that the Vala hypothesis - or indeed any hypothesis on Tom Bombadil - is definitively incorrect. But I think the bulk of evidence is against such a view.
